Alfredo Aceves
Age: 26
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 6 |
5 |
101 |
110 |
15 |
34 |
65 |
3 |
58 |
54 |
4.81 |
19 |
19 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
75 |
98 |
32 |
44 |
17 |
4 |
6.72 |
| 20th |
82 |
100 |
33 |
50 |
16 |
4 |
6.04 |
| 30th |
88 |
104 |
33 |
55 |
16 |
3 |
5.63 |
| 40th |
94 |
107 |
34 |
60 |
15 |
3 |
5.17 |
| 50th |
101 |
110 |
34 |
65 |
15 |
3 |
4.81 |
| 60th |
104 |
109 |
33 |
68 |
14 |
3 |
4.41 |
| 70th |
107 |
108 |
32 |
71 |
13 |
2 |
4.04 |
| 80th |
110 |
106 |
31 |
75 |
12 |
2 |
3.68 |
| 90th |
114 |
104 |
29 |
79 |
10 |
1 |
3.32 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 13 |
1.2 |
5.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
101 |
107 |
35 |
69 |
14 |
3 |
4.57 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
5.0 |
| 2010 |
27 |
91 |
97 |
31 |
61 |
13 |
3 |
4.62 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
4.6 |
| 2011 |
28 |
82 |
88 |
27 |
55 |
12 |
2 |
4.62 |
1.0 |
0.9 |
4.6 |
| 2012 |
29 |
74 |
80 |
24 |
49 |
11 |
2 |
4.67 |
1.0 |
0.8 |
4.5 |
| 2013 |
30 |
66 |
72 |
22 |
43 |
10 |
2 |
4.77 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| 2014 |
31 |
59 |
65 |
20 |
38 |
9 |
2 |
4.85 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
3.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.