Nick Adenhart
Age: 22
Team: LAA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 6 |
9 |
139 |
159 |
17 |
79 |
87 |
5 |
92 |
85 |
5.5 |
25 |
25 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
105 |
136 |
70 |
62 |
18 |
6 |
6.94 |
| 20th |
113 |
142 |
72 |
68 |
18 |
6 |
6.61 |
| 30th |
122 |
147 |
74 |
75 |
17 |
5 |
6.05 |
| 40th |
130 |
153 |
77 |
81 |
17 |
5 |
5.82 |
| 50th |
139 |
159 |
79 |
87 |
17 |
5 |
5.50 |
| 60th |
142 |
159 |
78 |
90 |
16 |
5 |
5.20 |
| 70th |
146 |
159 |
78 |
94 |
15 |
4 |
4.93 |
| 80th |
150 |
158 |
77 |
98 |
14 |
4 |
4.68 |
| 90th |
155 |
156 |
75 |
103 |
12 |
3 |
4.18 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
22 |
139 |
157 |
80 |
92 |
18 |
5 |
5.49 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
23 |
126 |
140 |
71 |
86 |
16 |
4 |
5.33 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2011 |
24 |
114 |
125 |
63 |
79 |
14 |
4 |
5.20 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| 2012 |
25 |
103 |
114 |
55 |
71 |
13 |
3 |
5.21 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| 2013 |
26 |
93 |
102 |
49 |
64 |
12 |
3 |
5.17 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
27 |
84 |
92 |
43 |
57 |
10 |
3 |
5.06 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
3.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.