Tim Alderson
Age: 20
Team: SFN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
6 |
86 |
97 |
13 |
42 |
56 |
3 |
56 |
52 |
5.44 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
62 |
88 |
41 |
36 |
16 |
5 |
8.27 |
| 20th |
69 |
90 |
41 |
41 |
15 |
4 |
7.17 |
| 30th |
75 |
92 |
41 |
46 |
14 |
4 |
6.36 |
| 40th |
80 |
95 |
42 |
51 |
14 |
3 |
5.96 |
| 50th |
86 |
97 |
42 |
56 |
13 |
3 |
5.44 |
| 60th |
89 |
96 |
41 |
59 |
12 |
3 |
4.96 |
| 70th |
92 |
94 |
40 |
62 |
11 |
2 |
4.40 |
| 80th |
96 |
92 |
38 |
66 |
9 |
1 |
3.84 |
| 90th |
101 |
88 |
35 |
71 |
7 |
0 |
3.12 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
20 |
86 |
98 |
42 |
53 |
14 |
3 |
5.54 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
21 |
78 |
88 |
37 |
49 |
13 |
3 |
5.48 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
22 |
70 |
79 |
33 |
45 |
11 |
3 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
23 |
63 |
71 |
29 |
42 |
10 |
2 |
5.35 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
24 |
57 |
63 |
26 |
39 |
9 |
2 |
5.24 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
25 |
52 |
57 |
23 |
35 |
8 |
2 |
5.14 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.