Baseball Projection.com

Giancarlo Alvarado

Age: 31 Team: LAA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
4	5	84	89	13	44	66	4	53	49	5.25	16	16

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	62	79	41	45	14	5	7.40
20th	68	81	41	51	14	5	6.62
30th	74	83	42	56	13	4	5.84
40th	79	86	43	61	13	4	5.47
50th	84	89	44	66	13	4	5.25
60th	87	88	43	69	12	4	4.76
70th	90	87	43	72	11	3	4.30
80th	93	86	41	76	10	3	3.97
90th	96	84	39	80	9	2	3.56

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

8 0.8 3.9

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 31 85 87 45 70 13 4 5.04 1.0 0.5 2.1

2010 32 76 79 41 62 12 3 5.16 1.0 0.3 1.4

2011 33 68 71 38 55 11 3 5.27 1.0 0.2 1.0

2012 34 61 64 35 48 10 3 5.37 1.0 0.1 0.6

2013 35 55 58 32 42 9 2 5.38 1.0 0.1 0.6

2014 36 49 52 29 37 8 2 5.46 1.0 0.0 0.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
8	0.8	3.9

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	31	85	87	45	70	13	4	5.04	1.0	0.5	2.1
2010	32	76	79	41	62	12	3	5.16	1.0	0.3	1.4
2011	33	68	71	38	55	11	3	5.27	1.0	0.2	1.0
2012	34	61	64	35	48	10	3	5.37	1.0	0.1	0.6
2013	35	55	58	32	42	9	2	5.38	1.0	0.1	0.6
2014	36	49	52	29	37	8	2	5.46	1.0	0.0	0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.