Hector Ambriz
Age: 25
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
8 |
112 |
129 |
24 |
50 |
71 |
4 |
78 |
72 |
5.79 |
21 |
21 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
84 |
113 |
46 |
49 |
24 |
5 |
7.71 |
| 20th |
91 |
116 |
47 |
55 |
24 |
5 |
7.02 |
| 30th |
99 |
120 |
48 |
61 |
24 |
4 |
6.45 |
| 40th |
105 |
125 |
49 |
66 |
24 |
4 |
6.17 |
| 50th |
112 |
129 |
50 |
71 |
24 |
4 |
5.79 |
| 60th |
116 |
128 |
49 |
74 |
23 |
4 |
5.35 |
| 70th |
119 |
128 |
49 |
77 |
22 |
3 |
5.14 |
| 80th |
123 |
125 |
47 |
81 |
20 |
3 |
4.61 |
| 90th |
127 |
124 |
45 |
85 |
19 |
2 |
4.25 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
113 |
127 |
49 |
68 |
22 |
4 |
5.53 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
26 |
102 |
115 |
43 |
61 |
20 |
3 |
5.50 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
27 |
92 |
103 |
38 |
55 |
18 |
3 |
5.44 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
28 |
83 |
93 |
34 |
49 |
16 |
3 |
5.43 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
29 |
75 |
85 |
30 |
43 |
15 |
2 |
5.49 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
30 |
67 |
76 |
27 |
39 |
13 |
2 |
5.47 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.