Marlon Arias
Age: 24
Team: LAN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
6 |
86 |
97 |
17 |
47 |
52 |
3 |
61 |
56 |
5.86 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
64 |
86 |
44 |
35 |
18 |
4 |
8.16 |
| 20th |
69 |
89 |
44 |
39 |
18 |
4 |
7.43 |
| 30th |
75 |
91 |
45 |
44 |
17 |
3 |
6.72 |
| 40th |
81 |
94 |
46 |
48 |
17 |
3 |
6.22 |
| 50th |
86 |
97 |
47 |
52 |
17 |
3 |
5.86 |
| 60th |
89 |
96 |
46 |
54 |
16 |
3 |
5.46 |
| 70th |
92 |
95 |
45 |
57 |
15 |
2 |
4.99 |
| 80th |
95 |
93 |
44 |
60 |
14 |
2 |
4.55 |
| 90th |
99 |
91 |
42 |
64 |
12 |
1 |
3.91 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
86 |
99 |
47 |
48 |
16 |
3 |
5.94 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
25 |
77 |
90 |
41 |
43 |
15 |
3 |
6.06 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
26 |
70 |
81 |
37 |
38 |
13 |
2 |
5.90 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
27 |
63 |
74 |
32 |
34 |
12 |
2 |
5.97 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
28 |
56 |
66 |
29 |
31 |
11 |
2 |
6.07 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
29 |
51 |
60 |
25 |
27 |
10 |
2 |
5.99 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.