Wilkins Arias
Age: 28
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
48 |
52 |
7 |
28 |
38 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
5.44 |
44 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
35 |
47 |
27 |
25 |
8 |
3 |
7.97 |
| 20th |
38 |
48 |
27 |
28 |
8 |
3 |
7.34 |
| 30th |
42 |
50 |
27 |
32 |
8 |
2 |
6.64 |
| 40th |
45 |
50 |
28 |
35 |
7 |
2 |
5.80 |
| 50th |
48 |
52 |
28 |
38 |
7 |
2 |
5.44 |
| 60th |
50 |
51 |
27 |
40 |
6 |
2 |
4.86 |
| 70th |
52 |
51 |
27 |
42 |
6 |
1 |
4.50 |
| 80th |
54 |
49 |
25 |
45 |
5 |
1 |
3.83 |
| 90th |
57 |
47 |
24 |
48 |
4 |
0 |
3.00 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
48 |
51 |
29 |
40 |
7 |
2 |
5.35 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
29 |
44 |
45 |
26 |
36 |
6 |
2 |
5.06 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
30 |
39 |
41 |
23 |
32 |
5 |
2 |
5.16 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
31 |
35 |
37 |
21 |
28 |
5 |
2 |
5.34 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
32 |
32 |
33 |
20 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
5.07 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
33 |
28 |
30 |
18 |
22 |
4 |
1 |
5.47 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.