Erik Arnesen
Age: 25
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
5 |
60 |
75 |
14 |
26 |
33 |
2 |
46 |
43 |
6.45 |
13 |
13 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
43 |
69 |
26 |
21 |
16 |
3 |
9.84 |
| 20th |
47 |
70 |
26 |
24 |
15 |
3 |
8.62 |
| 30th |
51 |
72 |
26 |
27 |
15 |
2 |
7.76 |
| 40th |
56 |
73 |
26 |
30 |
14 |
2 |
6.91 |
| 50th |
60 |
75 |
26 |
33 |
14 |
2 |
6.45 |
| 60th |
62 |
74 |
25 |
35 |
13 |
2 |
5.95 |
| 70th |
64 |
73 |
24 |
37 |
12 |
1 |
5.34 |
| 80th |
67 |
70 |
23 |
40 |
10 |
1 |
4.43 |
| 90th |
70 |
67 |
21 |
43 |
8 |
0 |
3.73 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 3 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
60 |
75 |
26 |
31 |
14 |
2 |
6.41 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
26 |
54 |
68 |
23 |
27 |
13 |
2 |
6.49 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
27 |
48 |
61 |
20 |
25 |
11 |
2 |
6.46 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
28 |
44 |
55 |
18 |
22 |
10 |
2 |
6.34 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
29 |
39 |
50 |
16 |
20 |
9 |
1 |
6.46 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
30 |
35 |
46 |
14 |
17 |
9 |
1 |
6.77 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.