Andrew Bailey
Age: 25
Team: OAK
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
6 |
91 |
93 |
16 |
53 |
66 |
4 |
58 |
54 |
5.34 |
20 |
20 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
67 |
83 |
49 |
45 |
17 |
5 |
7.52 |
| 20th |
73 |
85 |
50 |
50 |
17 |
5 |
6.90 |
| 30th |
79 |
88 |
50 |
56 |
16 |
4 |
6.15 |
| 40th |
85 |
90 |
52 |
61 |
16 |
4 |
5.72 |
| 50th |
91 |
93 |
53 |
66 |
16 |
4 |
5.34 |
| 60th |
93 |
92 |
52 |
69 |
15 |
4 |
5.03 |
| 70th |
97 |
91 |
51 |
72 |
14 |
3 |
4.45 |
| 80th |
100 |
89 |
50 |
76 |
13 |
3 |
4.05 |
| 90th |
103 |
87 |
48 |
81 |
11 |
2 |
3.67 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
90 |
93 |
54 |
72 |
16 |
4 |
5.44 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
26 |
81 |
84 |
48 |
65 |
14 |
4 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
27 |
73 |
76 |
42 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
5.44 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
28 |
66 |
69 |
37 |
52 |
12 |
3 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
29 |
59 |
63 |
33 |
46 |
11 |
3 |
5.58 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
30 |
53 |
56 |
30 |
41 |
9 |
3 |
5.44 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.