Chris Begg
Age: 29
Team: SFN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
7 |
107 |
129 |
15 |
27 |
53 |
5 |
65 |
60 |
5.05 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
80 |
114 |
27 |
35 |
17 |
6 |
6.98 |
| 20th |
86 |
118 |
27 |
40 |
17 |
6 |
6.49 |
| 30th |
94 |
121 |
27 |
44 |
16 |
5 |
5.74 |
| 40th |
100 |
125 |
27 |
49 |
15 |
5 |
5.40 |
| 50th |
107 |
129 |
27 |
53 |
15 |
5 |
5.05 |
| 60th |
110 |
128 |
26 |
56 |
14 |
5 |
4.66 |
| 70th |
113 |
127 |
25 |
58 |
13 |
4 |
4.38 |
| 80th |
117 |
125 |
24 |
62 |
11 |
3 |
3.92 |
| 90th |
122 |
122 |
22 |
66 |
9 |
2 |
3.32 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 9 |
0.9 |
4.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
29 |
107 |
129 |
27 |
51 |
16 |
5 |
5.11 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
| 2010 |
30 |
96 |
117 |
25 |
45 |
15 |
4 |
5.22 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
31 |
86 |
105 |
23 |
40 |
13 |
4 |
5.24 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
32 |
77 |
95 |
21 |
35 |
12 |
4 |
5.36 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
| 2013 |
33 |
69 |
86 |
19 |
31 |
11 |
3 |
5.43 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
34 |
62 |
77 |
18 |
27 |
10 |
3 |
5.48 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.