Baseball Projection.com

Jay Bergmann

Age: 27 Team: WAS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	9	135	144	20	47	98	3	76	70	4.67	28	28

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	103	124	42	71	20	4	5.94
20th	111	129	43	78	20	4	5.51
30th	119	134	44	85	20	3	5.14
40th	127	139	46	91	20	3	4.89
50th	135	144	47	98	20	3	4.67
60th	138	144	47	101	19	3	4.43
70th	142	143	46	105	18	2	4.18
80th	146	142	45	109	17	2	3.88
90th	150	141	44	113	16	1	3.60

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

14 1.3 6.1

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 27 135 145 47 91 20 3 4.70 1.0 1.3 5.9

2010 28 121 131 41 81 18 3 4.73 1.0 1.1 5.5

2011 29 109 119 37 72 17 3 4.83 1.0 0.9 4.6

2012 30 98 107 34 64 15 3 4.84 1.0 0.8 4.5

2013 31 88 96 31 57 13 2 4.79 1.0 0.8 4.9

2014 32 79 87 28 50 12 2 4.89 1.0 0.6 4.0

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
14	1.3	6.1

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	27	135	145	47	91	20	3	4.70	1.0	1.3	5.9
2010	28	121	131	41	81	18	3	4.73	1.0	1.1	5.5
2011	29	109	119	37	72	17	3	4.83	1.0	0.9	4.6
2012	30	98	107	34	64	15	3	4.84	1.0	0.8	4.5
2013	31	88	96	31	57	13	2	4.79	1.0	0.8	4.9
2014	32	79	87	28	50	12	2	4.89	1.0	0.6	4.0

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.