Travis Blackley
Age: 26
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
9 |
127 |
145 |
24 |
65 |
84 |
6 |
89 |
82 |
5.81 |
25 |
25 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
96 |
125 |
58 |
60 |
24 |
7 |
7.50 |
| 20th |
104 |
130 |
59 |
66 |
24 |
6 |
6.92 |
| 30th |
112 |
135 |
61 |
72 |
24 |
6 |
6.43 |
| 40th |
119 |
140 |
63 |
78 |
24 |
6 |
6.13 |
| 50th |
127 |
145 |
65 |
84 |
24 |
6 |
5.81 |
| 60th |
130 |
145 |
64 |
87 |
23 |
6 |
5.54 |
| 70th |
134 |
145 |
64 |
90 |
22 |
5 |
5.24 |
| 80th |
138 |
143 |
63 |
94 |
21 |
5 |
4.89 |
| 90th |
142 |
141 |
61 |
99 |
19 |
4 |
4.44 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
128 |
142 |
64 |
81 |
22 |
6 |
5.53 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
116 |
129 |
56 |
72 |
20 |
5 |
5.49 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
28 |
104 |
117 |
50 |
64 |
18 |
5 |
5.57 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
29 |
94 |
105 |
44 |
58 |
16 |
4 |
5.45 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
30 |
84 |
95 |
40 |
51 |
15 |
4 |
5.62 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
31 |
76 |
86 |
37 |
45 |
13 |
3 |
5.58 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.