Baseball Projection.com

Michael Bowden

Age: 22 Team: BOS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	6	118	122	17	41	83	3	63	58	4.42	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	89	107	38	59	18	4	5.97
20th	96	111	39	65	18	4	5.53
30th	104	114	39	71	17	3	4.93
40th	111	118	40	77	17	3	4.70
50th	118	122	41	83	17	3	4.42
60th	122	121	40	86	16	3	4.13
70th	125	120	40	90	15	2	3.89
80th	128	119	38	94	14	2	3.59
90th	133	116	37	99	12	1	3.11

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

17 1.6 7.4

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 22 119 120 41 90 18 3 4.40 1.0 1.5 6.7

2010 23 108 107 36 83 16 3 4.27 1.0 1.5 7.4

2011 24 97 96 32 77 14 2 4.21 1.0 1.4 7.6

2012 25 88 86 28 70 13 2 4.15 1.0 1.4 8.4

2013 26 79 78 25 62 12 2 4.23 1.0 1.1 7.4

2014 27 71 70 22 55 10 2 4.14 1.0 1.1 8.1

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
17	1.6	7.4

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	22	119	120	41	90	18	3	4.40	1.0	1.5	6.7
2010	23	108	107	36	83	16	3	4.27	1.0	1.5	7.4
2011	24	97	96	32	77	14	2	4.21	1.0	1.4	7.6
2012	25	88	86	28	70	13	2	4.15	1.0	1.4	8.4
2013	26	79	78	25	62	12	2	4.23	1.0	1.1	7.4
2014	27	71	70	22	55	10	2	4.14	1.0	1.1	8.1

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.