Clay Buchholz
Age: 24
Team: BOS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 8 |
5 |
117 |
112 |
13 |
51 |
111 |
4 |
58 |
54 |
4.15 |
24 |
24 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
88 |
98 |
46 |
80 |
14 |
5 |
5.52 |
| 20th |
96 |
101 |
47 |
88 |
14 |
5 |
5.06 |
| 30th |
103 |
104 |
48 |
96 |
13 |
4 |
4.54 |
| 40th |
110 |
108 |
50 |
103 |
13 |
4 |
4.34 |
| 50th |
117 |
112 |
51 |
111 |
13 |
4 |
4.15 |
| 60th |
120 |
111 |
50 |
115 |
12 |
4 |
3.83 |
| 70th |
123 |
111 |
50 |
119 |
12 |
3 |
3.66 |
| 80th |
127 |
109 |
49 |
123 |
10 |
3 |
3.26 |
| 90th |
131 |
108 |
47 |
129 |
9 |
2 |
2.95 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 22 |
2.1 |
9.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
118 |
108 |
51 |
121 |
13 |
4 |
3.90 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
9.6 |
| 2010 |
25 |
106 |
98 |
45 |
109 |
12 |
4 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
9.2 |
| 2011 |
26 |
96 |
89 |
40 |
97 |
11 |
4 |
3.97 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
9.1 |
| 2012 |
27 |
87 |
80 |
35 |
87 |
10 |
3 |
3.88 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
9.5 |
| 2013 |
28 |
78 |
73 |
31 |
78 |
9 |
3 |
3.96 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
9.2 |
| 2014 |
29 |
70 |
66 |
27 |
69 |
8 |
3 |
3.96 |
1.0 |
1.2 |
8.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.