Baseball Projection.com

Billy Buckner

Age: 25 Team: ARI

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	9	134	151	19	55	90	5	82	76	5.1	26	26

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	102	130	50	64	19	6	6.44
20th	110	135	51	71	19	6	6.05
30th	119	140	52	78	19	5	5.52
40th	126	145	54	84	19	5	5.36
50th	134	151	55	90	19	5	5.10
60th	138	151	54	93	18	5	4.83
70th	141	150	54	97	17	4	4.53
80th	145	149	53	101	16	4	4.22
90th	150	148	51	106	15	3	3.90

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

14 1.3 6.1

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 136 148 54 87 18 5 4.80 1.0 1.1 5.0

2010 26 122 134 48 77 16 5 4.85 1.0 1.0 4.6

2011 27 110 121 42 69 14 4 4.78 1.0 1.0 5.1

2012 28 99 109 37 62 13 4 4.80 1.0 0.9 5.0

2013 29 89 99 33 55 12 3 4.85 1.0 0.7 4.3

2014 30 80 89 30 49 11 3 4.90 1.0 0.6 4.0

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
14	1.3	6.1

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	25	136	148	54	87	18	5	4.80	1.0	1.1	5.0
2010	26	122	134	48	77	16	5	4.85	1.0	1.0	4.6
2011	27	110	121	42	69	14	4	4.78	1.0	1.0	5.1
2012	28	99	109	37	62	13	4	4.80	1.0	0.9	5.0
2013	29	89	99	33	55	12	3	4.85	1.0	0.7	4.3
2014	30	80	89	30	49	11	3	4.90	1.0	0.6	4.0

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.