Matt Cain
Age: 24
Team: SFN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 11 |
10 |
189 |
174 |
17 |
76 |
166 |
6 |
85 |
79 |
3.76 |
30 |
30 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
145 |
148 |
67 |
123 |
17 |
7 |
4.59 |
| 20th |
156 |
155 |
69 |
134 |
17 |
6 |
4.33 |
| 30th |
167 |
161 |
71 |
145 |
17 |
6 |
4.10 |
| 40th |
178 |
168 |
74 |
155 |
17 |
6 |
3.94 |
| 50th |
189 |
174 |
76 |
166 |
17 |
6 |
3.76 |
| 60th |
193 |
174 |
76 |
171 |
16 |
6 |
3.59 |
| 70th |
197 |
175 |
75 |
176 |
16 |
5 |
3.47 |
| 80th |
202 |
173 |
74 |
182 |
14 |
5 |
3.16 |
| 90th |
207 |
172 |
73 |
188 |
13 |
4 |
2.96 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 36 |
3.4 |
15.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
187 |
177 |
77 |
158 |
19 |
6 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
3.4 |
15.1 |
| 2010 |
25 |
169 |
159 |
68 |
142 |
17 |
6 |
3.91 |
1.0 |
3.1 |
15.2 |
| 2011 |
26 |
152 |
144 |
60 |
127 |
15 |
5 |
3.90 |
1.0 |
2.9 |
15.2 |
| 2012 |
27 |
137 |
130 |
53 |
114 |
14 |
5 |
3.92 |
1.0 |
2.6 |
15.1 |
| 2013 |
28 |
124 |
117 |
47 |
102 |
12 |
4 |
3.83 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
15.3 |
| 2014 |
29 |
111 |
106 |
41 |
91 |
11 |
4 |
3.88 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
14.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.