Jesse Carlson
Age: 28
Team: TOR
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
69 |
67 |
8 |
25 |
60 |
3 |
34 |
31 |
4.04 |
64 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
51 |
60 |
24 |
41 |
9 |
4 |
5.82 |
| 20th |
56 |
62 |
24 |
46 |
9 |
4 |
5.30 |
| 30th |
61 |
64 |
24 |
51 |
9 |
3 |
4.72 |
| 40th |
65 |
65 |
25 |
55 |
8 |
3 |
4.29 |
| 50th |
69 |
67 |
25 |
60 |
8 |
3 |
4.04 |
| 60th |
72 |
66 |
24 |
63 |
7 |
3 |
3.63 |
| 70th |
73 |
66 |
24 |
65 |
7 |
2 |
3.58 |
| 80th |
76 |
64 |
23 |
69 |
6 |
2 |
3.08 |
| 90th |
79 |
62 |
21 |
73 |
5 |
1 |
2.51 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
70 |
66 |
25 |
63 |
7 |
3 |
3.81 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
2.5 |
| 2010 |
29 |
63 |
60 |
22 |
57 |
7 |
3 |
3.93 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.3 |
| 2011 |
30 |
56 |
54 |
20 |
50 |
6 |
3 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
| 2012 |
31 |
51 |
48 |
19 |
44 |
5 |
2 |
3.82 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| 2013 |
32 |
45 |
44 |
17 |
39 |
5 |
2 |
4.11 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
33 |
41 |
39 |
16 |
35 |
4 |
2 |
3.93 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.