Baseball Projection.com

Jose Contreras

Age: 37 Team: CHA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	7	125	144	14	41	74	6	72	67	4.82	20	20

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	96	123	37	53	14	6	5.91
20th	103	128	38	58	14	6	5.59
30th	111	133	39	64	14	6	5.27
40th	118	139	40	69	14	6	5.03
50th	125	144	41	74	14	6	4.82
60th	128	144	41	77	13	6	4.64
70th	131	145	40	79	13	5	4.47
80th	135	144	39	83	12	5	4.13
90th	139	142	38	87	11	4	3.76

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

19 1.8 8.3

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 37 128 137 41 79 12 6 4.27 1.0 1.9 8.4

2010 38 114 125 37 69 11 5 4.42 1.0 1.4 6.9

2011 39 103 112 34 61 10 5 4.41 1.0 1.3 7.1

2012 40 92 102 31 53 9 4 4.52 1.0 1.0 6.1

2013 41 82 92 29 46 8 4 4.65 1.0 0.9 5.5

2014 42 74 83 26 41 8 3 4.69 1.0 0.8 5.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
19	1.8	8.3

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	37	128	137	41	79	12	6	4.27	1.0	1.9	8.4
2010	38	114	125	37	69	11	5	4.42	1.0	1.4	6.9
2011	39	103	112	34	61	10	5	4.41	1.0	1.3	7.1
2012	40	92	102	31	53	9	4	4.52	1.0	1.0	6.1
2013	41	82	92	29	46	8	4	4.65	1.0	0.9	5.5
2014	42	74	83	26	41	8	3	4.69	1.0	0.8	5.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.