John Danks
Age: 24
Team: CHA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 8 |
9 |
151 |
162 |
20 |
52 |
130 |
5 |
83 |
77 |
4.59 |
28 |
28 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
115 |
139 |
47 |
95 |
20 |
6 |
5.79 |
| 20th |
124 |
145 |
48 |
104 |
20 |
5 |
5.37 |
| 30th |
134 |
150 |
49 |
113 |
20 |
5 |
4.97 |
| 40th |
142 |
156 |
51 |
121 |
20 |
5 |
4.82 |
| 50th |
151 |
162 |
52 |
130 |
20 |
5 |
4.59 |
| 60th |
154 |
162 |
52 |
134 |
19 |
5 |
4.38 |
| 70th |
158 |
163 |
51 |
138 |
19 |
4 |
4.22 |
| 80th |
162 |
162 |
50 |
143 |
18 |
4 |
3.94 |
| 90th |
167 |
160 |
48 |
149 |
16 |
3 |
3.61 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 28 |
2.7 |
12.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
154 |
153 |
51 |
139 |
17 |
5 |
4.02 |
1.0 |
2.7 |
11.7 |
| 2010 |
25 |
139 |
138 |
45 |
125 |
15 |
4 |
3.97 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
12.0 |
| 2011 |
26 |
125 |
125 |
40 |
112 |
14 |
4 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
11.7 |
| 2012 |
27 |
113 |
113 |
35 |
100 |
12 |
3 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
2.1 |
12.3 |
| 2013 |
28 |
102 |
102 |
31 |
89 |
11 |
3 |
3.95 |
1.0 |
1.8 |
11.7 |
| 2014 |
29 |
91 |
92 |
28 |
79 |
10 |
3 |
4.04 |
1.0 |
1.5 |
10.8 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.