Scott Downs
Age: 33
Team: TOR
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
3 |
63 |
58 |
4 |
26 |
54 |
3 |
27 |
25 |
3.57 |
66 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
47 |
51 |
24 |
38 |
5 |
4 |
4.98 |
| 20th |
51 |
53 |
25 |
42 |
5 |
3 |
4.59 |
| 30th |
55 |
54 |
25 |
46 |
4 |
3 |
4.09 |
| 40th |
59 |
56 |
26 |
50 |
4 |
3 |
3.81 |
| 50th |
63 |
58 |
26 |
54 |
4 |
3 |
3.57 |
| 60th |
64 |
58 |
25 |
56 |
4 |
3 |
3.38 |
| 70th |
66 |
57 |
25 |
59 |
3 |
2 |
3.00 |
| 80th |
68 |
56 |
24 |
62 |
3 |
2 |
2.78 |
| 90th |
71 |
54 |
23 |
65 |
2 |
2 |
2.41 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 8 |
0.9 |
4.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
33 |
63 |
58 |
26 |
57 |
4 |
3 |
3.54 |
1.2 |
0.9 |
4.1 |
| 2010 |
34 |
57 |
52 |
24 |
51 |
3 |
2 |
3.41 |
1.3 |
1.0 |
4.9 |
| 2011 |
35 |
51 |
47 |
22 |
44 |
3 |
2 |
3.54 |
1.2 |
0.7 |
3.7 |
| 2012 |
36 |
45 |
43 |
20 |
39 |
3 |
2 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
| 2013 |
37 |
40 |
39 |
18 |
34 |
2 |
2 |
3.80 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.5 |
| 2014 |
38 |
36 |
35 |
17 |
30 |
2 |
2 |
3.90 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.