Scott Elbert
Age: 23
Team: LAN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
2 |
43 |
36 |
5 |
27 |
50 |
2 |
21 |
19 |
3.98 |
38 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
31 |
33 |
26 |
34 |
6 |
3 |
6.39 |
| 20th |
34 |
34 |
26 |
38 |
6 |
3 |
5.82 |
| 30th |
38 |
34 |
26 |
42 |
5 |
2 |
4.50 |
| 40th |
40 |
35 |
27 |
46 |
5 |
2 |
4.28 |
| 50th |
43 |
36 |
27 |
50 |
5 |
2 |
3.98 |
| 60th |
44 |
36 |
26 |
52 |
5 |
2 |
3.89 |
| 70th |
46 |
35 |
26 |
55 |
4 |
1 |
3.33 |
| 80th |
48 |
33 |
25 |
58 |
3 |
1 |
2.81 |
| 90th |
50 |
32 |
23 |
61 |
3 |
1 |
2.34 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 3 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
23 |
42 |
38 |
27 |
46 |
5 |
2 |
4.48 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
24 |
38 |
34 |
24 |
42 |
4 |
2 |
4.31 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2011 |
25 |
34 |
31 |
21 |
38 |
4 |
2 |
4.47 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
26 |
31 |
28 |
19 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
4.43 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
27 |
28 |
25 |
16 |
31 |
3 |
1 |
4.13 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
28 |
26 |
23 |
14 |
28 |
3 |
1 |
4.08 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.