Joshua Ellis
Age: 24
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
2 |
37 |
40 |
5 |
17 |
29 |
2 |
22 |
20 |
4.86 |
33 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
27 |
36 |
17 |
19 |
6 |
3 |
7.67 |
| 20th |
30 |
37 |
17 |
22 |
6 |
2 |
6.60 |
| 30th |
32 |
38 |
17 |
24 |
5 |
2 |
5.91 |
| 40th |
35 |
39 |
17 |
27 |
5 |
2 |
5.14 |
| 50th |
37 |
40 |
17 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
4.86 |
| 60th |
39 |
40 |
16 |
31 |
5 |
2 |
4.38 |
| 70th |
40 |
39 |
16 |
32 |
4 |
2 |
4.28 |
| 80th |
42 |
37 |
15 |
34 |
3 |
1 |
3.21 |
| 90th |
44 |
35 |
14 |
37 |
2 |
1 |
2.66 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 3 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
24 |
38 |
39 |
17 |
28 |
5 |
2 |
4.66 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
25 |
34 |
35 |
15 |
25 |
4 |
1 |
4.50 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
26 |
31 |
32 |
13 |
23 |
4 |
1 |
4.54 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
27 |
28 |
29 |
11 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
4.34 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
28 |
25 |
26 |
10 |
18 |
3 |
1 |
4.49 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
29 |
22 |
24 |
9 |
16 |
3 |
1 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.