John Ely
Age: 23
Team: CHA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
7 |
86 |
107 |
20 |
47 |
57 |
4 |
70 |
65 |
6.8 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
62 |
97 |
45 |
37 |
22 |
5 |
10.02 |
| 20th |
68 |
99 |
45 |
42 |
21 |
5 |
8.87 |
| 30th |
74 |
101 |
46 |
47 |
21 |
5 |
8.03 |
| 40th |
81 |
104 |
46 |
52 |
20 |
4 |
7.11 |
| 50th |
86 |
107 |
47 |
57 |
20 |
4 |
6.80 |
| 60th |
89 |
106 |
46 |
60 |
19 |
4 |
6.27 |
| 70th |
92 |
105 |
45 |
63 |
18 |
3 |
5.77 |
| 80th |
96 |
102 |
43 |
68 |
16 |
2 |
5.06 |
| 90th |
101 |
98 |
40 |
73 |
13 |
1 |
4.10 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.6 |
3.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
23 |
89 |
101 |
46 |
61 |
17 |
4 |
5.80 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
24 |
80 |
91 |
41 |
56 |
15 |
3 |
5.75 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
25 |
72 |
82 |
36 |
51 |
14 |
3 |
5.78 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
26 |
65 |
74 |
32 |
45 |
12 |
3 |
5.71 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
27 |
59 |
67 |
28 |
41 |
11 |
2 |
5.62 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
28 |
53 |
61 |
25 |
36 |
10 |
2 |
5.71 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.