Alan Embree
Age: 39
Team: COL
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
50 |
50 |
5 |
22 |
44 |
2 |
26 |
24 |
4.32 |
60 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
37 |
45 |
21 |
31 |
6 |
2 |
6.32 |
| 20th |
40 |
46 |
21 |
34 |
6 |
2 |
5.63 |
| 30th |
44 |
47 |
21 |
38 |
5 |
2 |
4.70 |
| 40th |
47 |
48 |
22 |
41 |
5 |
2 |
4.40 |
| 50th |
50 |
50 |
22 |
44 |
5 |
2 |
4.32 |
| 60th |
51 |
50 |
22 |
46 |
5 |
2 |
4.06 |
| 70th |
53 |
49 |
21 |
48 |
4 |
2 |
3.57 |
| 80th |
55 |
49 |
20 |
50 |
4 |
1 |
3.27 |
| 90th |
57 |
47 |
19 |
53 |
3 |
1 |
2.84 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 4 |
0.4 |
2.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
39 |
50 |
49 |
22 |
44 |
5 |
2 |
4.18 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| 2010 |
40 |
46 |
44 |
20 |
39 |
4 |
1 |
3.91 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
41 |
41 |
40 |
18 |
34 |
4 |
1 |
4.10 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.0 |
| 2012 |
42 |
36 |
37 |
17 |
29 |
4 |
1 |
4.55 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
43 |
33 |
33 |
15 |
26 |
3 |
1 |
4.23 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
44 |
29 |
30 |
14 |
22 |
3 |
1 |
4.58 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.