Kelvim Escobar
Age: 33
Team: LAA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 7 |
5 |
112 |
110 |
9 |
38 |
87 |
3 |
51 |
47 |
3.78 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
84 |
97 |
36 |
61 |
11 |
4 |
5.25 |
| 20th |
91 |
100 |
36 |
68 |
10 |
4 |
4.75 |
| 30th |
98 |
103 |
37 |
74 |
10 |
3 |
4.32 |
| 40th |
106 |
106 |
37 |
81 |
9 |
3 |
3.91 |
| 50th |
112 |
110 |
38 |
87 |
9 |
3 |
3.78 |
| 60th |
115 |
109 |
37 |
90 |
8 |
3 |
3.44 |
| 70th |
119 |
108 |
36 |
94 |
7 |
2 |
3.18 |
| 80th |
122 |
106 |
35 |
99 |
6 |
2 |
2.88 |
| 90th |
126 |
104 |
33 |
104 |
5 |
1 |
2.50 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 25 |
2.4 |
11.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
33 |
113 |
107 |
39 |
92 |
9 |
3 |
3.60 |
1.0 |
2.5 |
10.9 |
| 2010 |
34 |
101 |
97 |
35 |
82 |
8 |
3 |
3.67 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
10.6 |
| 2011 |
35 |
90 |
88 |
33 |
72 |
8 |
2 |
3.85 |
1.0 |
1.7 |
9.1 |
| 2012 |
36 |
81 |
79 |
30 |
63 |
7 |
2 |
3.84 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
9.5 |
| 2013 |
37 |
73 |
72 |
27 |
56 |
6 |
2 |
3.87 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
9.2 |
| 2014 |
38 |
65 |
65 |
25 |
49 |
6 |
2 |
4.05 |
1.0 |
1.1 |
8.1 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.