Shawn Estes
Age: 36
Team: LAN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
51 |
56 |
6 |
20 |
28 |
3 |
29 |
27 |
4.76 |
11 |
11 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
37 |
50 |
19 |
19 |
7 |
4 |
7.30 |
| 20th |
41 |
52 |
19 |
21 |
7 |
3 |
6.37 |
| 30th |
45 |
52 |
19 |
24 |
6 |
3 |
5.40 |
| 40th |
47 |
54 |
20 |
26 |
6 |
3 |
5.36 |
| 50th |
51 |
56 |
20 |
28 |
6 |
3 |
4.76 |
| 60th |
52 |
56 |
20 |
29 |
6 |
3 |
4.67 |
| 70th |
54 |
55 |
19 |
31 |
5 |
2 |
4.00 |
| 80th |
56 |
54 |
18 |
33 |
4 |
2 |
3.54 |
| 90th |
58 |
52 |
17 |
35 |
3 |
2 |
2.95 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 5 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
36 |
50 |
58 |
20 |
26 |
6 |
3 |
5.15 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.8 |
| 2010 |
37 |
45 |
52 |
18 |
23 |
5 |
2 |
5.02 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2011 |
38 |
40 |
47 |
17 |
20 |
5 |
2 |
5.30 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.5 |
| 2012 |
39 |
36 |
43 |
15 |
17 |
4 |
2 |
5.30 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
40 |
33 |
38 |
14 |
15 |
4 |
2 |
5.19 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2014 |
41 |
29 |
35 |
13 |
13 |
4 |
1 |
5.58 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.