Marco Estrada
Age: 25
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
7 |
103 |
110 |
16 |
47 |
76 |
5 |
63 |
58 |
5.07 |
21 |
21 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
77 |
96 |
43 |
54 |
17 |
6 |
6.78 |
| 20th |
83 |
100 |
44 |
59 |
17 |
6 |
6.40 |
| 30th |
90 |
103 |
45 |
65 |
16 |
5 |
5.70 |
| 40th |
97 |
106 |
46 |
71 |
16 |
5 |
5.29 |
| 50th |
103 |
110 |
47 |
76 |
16 |
5 |
5.07 |
| 60th |
106 |
109 |
46 |
79 |
15 |
5 |
4.75 |
| 70th |
108 |
109 |
46 |
82 |
14 |
4 |
4.50 |
| 80th |
112 |
107 |
44 |
86 |
13 |
4 |
4.02 |
| 90th |
115 |
106 |
43 |
90 |
12 |
3 |
3.76 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 8 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
102 |
111 |
47 |
71 |
16 |
5 |
5.19 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| 2010 |
26 |
92 |
101 |
41 |
63 |
15 |
5 |
5.26 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.4 |
| 2011 |
27 |
83 |
90 |
37 |
57 |
13 |
4 |
5.13 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.0 |
| 2012 |
28 |
75 |
82 |
32 |
51 |
12 |
4 |
5.16 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.7 |
| 2013 |
29 |
67 |
74 |
29 |
45 |
11 |
3 |
5.24 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
30 |
61 |
67 |
26 |
40 |
10 |
3 |
5.20 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.