Baseball Projection.com

Josh Fogg

Age: 32 Team: COL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	8	127	156	19	46	70	7	85	79	5.6	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	97	133	42	50	19	8	6.96
20th	104	139	43	55	19	7	6.58
30th	112	144	44	60	19	7	6.19
40th	120	150	45	65	19	7	5.85
50th	127	156	46	70	19	7	5.60
60th	131	156	45	73	18	7	5.29
70th	134	156	45	75	17	6	5.04
80th	138	155	44	79	16	6	4.70
90th	142	154	42	83	15	5	4.31

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

8 0.8 3.9

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 32 129 152 46 70 18 7 5.26 1.0 0.4 1.7

2010 33 116 137 42 62 16 6 5.27 1.0 0.4 1.8

2011 34 104 123 38 54 14 6 5.29 1.0 0.3 1.5

2012 35 93 111 35 48 13 5 5.40 1.0 0.2 1.1

2013 36 83 101 32 42 12 5 5.60 1.0 0.0 0.4

2014 37 75 90 30 37 10 4 5.46 1.0 0.1 0.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
8	0.8	3.9

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	32	129	152	46	70	18	7	5.26	1.0	0.4	1.7
2010	33	116	137	42	62	16	6	5.27	1.0	0.4	1.8
2011	34	104	123	38	54	14	6	5.29	1.0	0.3	1.5
2012	35	93	111	35	48	13	5	5.40	1.0	0.2	1.1
2013	36	83	101	32	42	12	5	5.60	1.0	0.0	0.4
2014	37	75	90	30	37	10	4	5.46	1.0	0.1	0.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.