Michael Gardner
Age: 28
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
3 |
47 |
52 |
7 |
30 |
32 |
2 |
32 |
30 |
5.74 |
44 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
34 |
46 |
28 |
21 |
8 |
3 |
8.21 |
| 20th |
37 |
48 |
28 |
24 |
8 |
2 |
7.54 |
| 30th |
41 |
49 |
29 |
27 |
7 |
2 |
6.59 |
| 40th |
44 |
51 |
29 |
29 |
7 |
2 |
6.14 |
| 50th |
47 |
52 |
30 |
32 |
7 |
2 |
5.74 |
| 60th |
48 |
52 |
29 |
34 |
7 |
2 |
5.44 |
| 70th |
50 |
51 |
29 |
35 |
6 |
2 |
4.86 |
| 80th |
52 |
50 |
28 |
37 |
5 |
1 |
4.15 |
| 90th |
54 |
48 |
27 |
40 |
4 |
1 |
3.67 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
28 |
47 |
51 |
31 |
34 |
7 |
2 |
5.63 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
29 |
42 |
46 |
27 |
30 |
6 |
2 |
5.61 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
30 |
38 |
41 |
25 |
27 |
5 |
2 |
5.50 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
31 |
34 |
37 |
23 |
24 |
5 |
1 |
5.64 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
32 |
31 |
33 |
21 |
21 |
4 |
1 |
5.40 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
33 |
27 |
30 |
19 |
18 |
4 |
1 |
5.88 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.