Baseball Projection.com

Jon Garland

Age: 29 Team: ARI

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
9	12	187	227	21	54	102	7	112	104	5.01	30	30

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	144	192	48	74	21	7	6.00
20th	155	201	50	81	21	7	5.69
30th	166	209	51	88	21	7	5.37
40th	176	218	53	95	21	7	5.22
50th	187	227	54	102	21	7	5.01
60th	191	228	53	105	20	7	4.81
70th	196	228	53	109	19	6	4.55
80th	200	228	52	113	18	6	4.37
90th	206	227	50	118	17	5	4.06

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

19 1.8 8.3

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 29 189 222 53 98 19 7 4.69 1.0 1.8 8.0

2010 30 170 201 48 87 18 6 4.77 1.0 1.5 7.4

2011 31 152 182 44 77 16 5 4.85 1.0 1.2 6.6

2012 32 137 163 41 68 14 5 4.83 1.0 1.1 6.7

2013 33 123 148 37 60 13 4 4.92 1.0 0.9 5.5

2014 34 110 133 34 53 12 4 5.01 1.0 0.7 4.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
19	1.8	8.3

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	29	189	222	53	98	19	7	4.69	1.0	1.8	8.0
2010	30	170	201	48	87	18	6	4.77	1.0	1.5	7.4
2011	31	152	182	44	77	16	5	4.85	1.0	1.2	6.6
2012	32	137	163	41	68	14	5	4.83	1.0	1.1	6.7
2013	33	123	148	37	60	13	4	4.92	1.0	0.9	5.5
2014	34	110	133	34	53	12	4	5.01	1.0	0.7	4.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.