Matt Garza
Age: 25
Team: TBA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 10 |
9 |
168 |
163 |
18 |
59 |
125 |
6 |
80 |
74 |
3.96 |
30 |
30 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
129 |
140 |
53 |
91 |
18 |
7 |
4.95 |
| 20th |
139 |
146 |
54 |
100 |
18 |
6 |
4.60 |
| 30th |
149 |
151 |
56 |
109 |
18 |
6 |
4.35 |
| 40th |
158 |
157 |
57 |
117 |
18 |
6 |
4.16 |
| 50th |
168 |
163 |
59 |
125 |
18 |
6 |
3.96 |
| 60th |
172 |
163 |
59 |
129 |
17 |
6 |
3.77 |
| 70th |
176 |
163 |
58 |
133 |
16 |
5 |
3.53 |
| 80th |
181 |
161 |
57 |
138 |
15 |
5 |
3.33 |
| 90th |
186 |
160 |
55 |
144 |
14 |
4 |
3.10 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 30 |
2.9 |
13.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
168 |
165 |
58 |
131 |
18 |
6 |
3.99 |
1.0 |
3.0 |
13.0 |
| 2010 |
26 |
151 |
149 |
51 |
117 |
16 |
6 |
4.00 |
1.0 |
2.7 |
12.9 |
| 2011 |
27 |
136 |
135 |
45 |
105 |
15 |
5 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
2.4 |
12.7 |
| 2012 |
28 |
123 |
122 |
40 |
94 |
13 |
4 |
3.97 |
1.0 |
2.2 |
12.8 |
| 2013 |
29 |
110 |
111 |
35 |
83 |
12 |
4 |
4.06 |
1.0 |
1.9 |
12.3 |
| 2014 |
30 |
99 |
100 |
32 |
74 |
11 |
4 |
4.11 |
1.0 |
1.6 |
11.5 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.