Mike Gonzalez
Age: 31
Team: ATL
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
2 |
42 |
36 |
3 |
17 |
44 |
1 |
16 |
15 |
3.21 |
42 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
31 |
33 |
17 |
30 |
4 |
2 |
5.23 |
| 20th |
33 |
34 |
17 |
33 |
4 |
2 |
4.91 |
| 30th |
37 |
34 |
17 |
37 |
3 |
1 |
3.89 |
| 40th |
39 |
35 |
17 |
41 |
3 |
1 |
3.69 |
| 50th |
42 |
36 |
17 |
44 |
3 |
1 |
3.21 |
| 60th |
43 |
36 |
16 |
46 |
3 |
1 |
3.14 |
| 70th |
45 |
34 |
16 |
48 |
2 |
1 |
2.60 |
| 80th |
46 |
34 |
15 |
51 |
2 |
0 |
2.35 |
| 90th |
48 |
32 |
14 |
54 |
1 |
0 |
1.69 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 6 |
0.8 |
3.9 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
31 |
42 |
37 |
17 |
41 |
3 |
1 |
3.38 |
1.4 |
0.8 |
3.4 |
| 2010 |
32 |
37 |
34 |
16 |
36 |
3 |
1 |
3.70 |
1.1 |
0.4 |
1.9 |
| 2011 |
33 |
33 |
31 |
14 |
32 |
3 |
1 |
3.85 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
34 |
30 |
27 |
13 |
28 |
2 |
1 |
3.52 |
1.2 |
0.5 |
2.7 |
| 2013 |
35 |
27 |
25 |
12 |
25 |
2 |
1 |
3.74 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.9 |
| 2014 |
36 |
24 |
23 |
11 |
22 |
2 |
1 |
4.01 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.