Jared Gothreaux
Age: 29
Team: HOU
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
56 |
60 |
7 |
20 |
35 |
2 |
31 |
29 |
4.66 |
49 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
42 |
52 |
19 |
25 |
7 |
2 |
6.00 |
| 20th |
46 |
54 |
19 |
27 |
7 |
2 |
5.48 |
| 30th |
49 |
56 |
19 |
30 |
7 |
2 |
5.14 |
| 40th |
52 |
58 |
20 |
32 |
7 |
2 |
5.02 |
| 50th |
56 |
60 |
20 |
35 |
7 |
2 |
4.66 |
| 60th |
57 |
60 |
20 |
36 |
7 |
2 |
4.42 |
| 70th |
59 |
59 |
19 |
38 |
6 |
2 |
3.97 |
| 80th |
60 |
59 |
19 |
40 |
6 |
1 |
3.90 |
| 90th |
62 |
58 |
18 |
42 |
5 |
1 |
3.34 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2 |
0.2 |
1.3 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
29 |
55 |
61 |
20 |
33 |
7 |
2 |
4.79 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
30 |
49 |
55 |
19 |
29 |
6 |
2 |
4.90 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
31 |
45 |
49 |
17 |
26 |
5 |
2 |
4.65 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
32 |
40 |
44 |
16 |
23 |
5 |
2 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
33 |
36 |
40 |
14 |
20 |
4 |
1 |
4.74 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
34 |
32 |
36 |
13 |
18 |
4 |
1 |
4.96 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.