Javy Guerra
Age: 23
Team: LAN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 2 |
3 |
38 |
38 |
5 |
30 |
32 |
2 |
25 |
23 |
5.45 |
36 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
28 |
34 |
28 |
21 |
6 |
3 |
8.04 |
| 20th |
30 |
36 |
28 |
24 |
6 |
2 |
7.50 |
| 30th |
33 |
36 |
29 |
27 |
5 |
2 |
6.27 |
| 40th |
36 |
37 |
29 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
5.75 |
| 50th |
38 |
38 |
30 |
32 |
5 |
2 |
5.45 |
| 60th |
40 |
38 |
29 |
34 |
5 |
2 |
4.95 |
| 70th |
41 |
37 |
29 |
35 |
4 |
2 |
4.39 |
| 80th |
43 |
35 |
28 |
38 |
3 |
1 |
3.77 |
| 90th |
44 |
35 |
27 |
40 |
3 |
1 |
3.48 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
23 |
38 |
40 |
30 |
29 |
5 |
2 |
5.76 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
24 |
35 |
35 |
26 |
27 |
4 |
2 |
5.24 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
25 |
31 |
32 |
23 |
24 |
4 |
2 |
5.54 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
26 |
28 |
29 |
21 |
22 |
4 |
1 |
5.59 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
27 |
25 |
26 |
18 |
20 |
3 |
1 |
5.38 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
28 |
23 |
24 |
16 |
18 |
3 |
1 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.