Juan Gutierrez
Age: 25
Team: ARI
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 5 |
8 |
118 |
130 |
17 |
51 |
83 |
5 |
72 |
67 |
5.11 |
23 |
23 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
89 |
112 |
46 |
59 |
17 |
6 |
6.57 |
| 20th |
97 |
116 |
47 |
66 |
17 |
5 |
5.94 |
| 30th |
104 |
121 |
48 |
72 |
17 |
5 |
5.63 |
| 40th |
111 |
125 |
50 |
77 |
17 |
5 |
5.35 |
| 50th |
118 |
130 |
51 |
83 |
17 |
5 |
5.11 |
| 60th |
121 |
130 |
50 |
86 |
16 |
5 |
4.83 |
| 70th |
124 |
130 |
50 |
89 |
16 |
4 |
4.57 |
| 80th |
127 |
128 |
49 |
93 |
14 |
4 |
4.18 |
| 90th |
131 |
127 |
47 |
97 |
13 |
3 |
3.85 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 12 |
1.1 |
5.2 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
25 |
119 |
128 |
50 |
80 |
16 |
5 |
4.85 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
4.2 |
| 2010 |
26 |
107 |
115 |
44 |
72 |
14 |
4 |
4.78 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
4.6 |
| 2011 |
27 |
96 |
105 |
39 |
64 |
13 |
4 |
4.90 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
| 2012 |
28 |
87 |
95 |
34 |
57 |
12 |
4 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.7 |
3.9 |
| 2013 |
29 |
78 |
86 |
30 |
51 |
11 |
3 |
4.91 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
3.7 |
| 2014 |
30 |
70 |
77 |
28 |
45 |
9 |
3 |
4.87 |
1.0 |
0.6 |
4.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.