Joel Hanrahan
Age: 27
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
4 |
71 |
66 |
6 |
37 |
76 |
2 |
34 |
31 |
3.93 |
62 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
53 |
58 |
33 |
55 |
7 |
3 |
5.43 |
| 20th |
58 |
59 |
34 |
61 |
6 |
2 |
4.81 |
| 30th |
62 |
61 |
35 |
66 |
6 |
2 |
4.50 |
| 40th |
66 |
64 |
36 |
71 |
6 |
2 |
4.23 |
| 50th |
71 |
66 |
37 |
76 |
6 |
2 |
3.93 |
| 60th |
72 |
66 |
37 |
78 |
6 |
2 |
3.88 |
| 70th |
75 |
65 |
36 |
81 |
5 |
2 |
3.48 |
| 80th |
77 |
65 |
35 |
85 |
5 |
1 |
3.27 |
| 90th |
79 |
64 |
34 |
88 |
4 |
1 |
2.96 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 5 |
0.5 |
2.6 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
27 |
70 |
67 |
37 |
71 |
6 |
2 |
4.15 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.3 |
| 2010 |
28 |
63 |
61 |
33 |
63 |
6 |
2 |
4.27 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
0.9 |
| 2011 |
29 |
57 |
55 |
29 |
56 |
5 |
2 |
4.18 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
30 |
51 |
51 |
26 |
50 |
5 |
1 |
4.38 |
1.0 |
0.1 |
0.6 |
| 2013 |
31 |
46 |
45 |
24 |
44 |
4 |
1 |
4.23 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
32 |
41 |
41 |
22 |
39 |
4 |
1 |
4.46 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.