Baseball Projection.com

Matt Harrison

Age: 23 Team: TEX

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
7	8	136	159	19	53	73	4	85	79	5.23	24	24

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	103	137	48	51	20	5	6.73
20th	111	142	49	57	19	5	6.24
30th	120	147	50	63	19	4	5.78
40th	128	153	52	68	19	4	5.48
50th	136	159	53	73	19	4	5.23
60th	139	159	52	76	18	4	4.99
70th	143	158	52	79	17	3	4.66
80th	147	157	51	83	16	3	4.35
90th	152	155	49	87	14	2	3.97

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

13 1.2 5.7

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 23 138 154 53 79 18 4 4.88 1.0 1.0 4.6

2010 24 124 138 47 73 16 4 4.85 1.0 1.0 4.6

2011 25 112 124 42 66 14 3 4.77 1.0 1.0 5.1

2012 26 101 112 37 59 13 3 4.79 1.0 0.9 5.0

2013 27 91 101 32 53 12 3 4.78 1.0 0.8 4.9

2014 28 82 91 29 47 10 2 4.69 1.0 0.8 5.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
13	1.2	5.7

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	23	138	154	53	79	18	4	4.88	1.0	1.0	4.6
2010	24	124	138	47	73	16	4	4.85	1.0	1.0	4.6
2011	25	112	124	42	66	14	3	4.77	1.0	1.0	5.1
2012	26	101	112	37	59	13	3	4.79	1.0	0.9	5.0
2013	27	91	101	32	53	12	3	4.78	1.0	0.8	4.9
2014	28	82	91	29	47	10	2	4.69	1.0	0.8	5.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.