Mike Hinckley
Age: 26
Team: WAS
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
5 |
66 |
72 |
8 |
39 |
48 |
3 |
42 |
39 |
5.32 |
61 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
50 |
63 |
35 |
34 |
9 |
3 |
7.02 |
| 20th |
54 |
64 |
36 |
38 |
8 |
3 |
6.33 |
| 30th |
58 |
67 |
37 |
41 |
8 |
3 |
5.90 |
| 40th |
62 |
69 |
38 |
45 |
8 |
3 |
5.52 |
| 50th |
66 |
72 |
39 |
48 |
8 |
3 |
5.32 |
| 60th |
68 |
72 |
39 |
50 |
8 |
3 |
5.03 |
| 70th |
70 |
71 |
38 |
52 |
7 |
3 |
4.63 |
| 80th |
72 |
71 |
37 |
54 |
6 |
2 |
4.25 |
| 90th |
75 |
69 |
36 |
57 |
5 |
2 |
3.72 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 1 |
0.1 |
0.8 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
66 |
73 |
39 |
45 |
8 |
3 |
5.39 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
59 |
66 |
34 |
40 |
7 |
3 |
5.41 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
28 |
54 |
60 |
30 |
36 |
7 |
2 |
5.35 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
29 |
48 |
54 |
27 |
32 |
6 |
2 |
5.42 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
30 |
43 |
48 |
25 |
28 |
5 |
2 |
5.39 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
31 |
38 |
44 |
23 |
25 |
5 |
2 |
5.80 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.