Baseball Projection.com

Jason Hirsh

Age: 27 Team: COL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	7	116	126	18	55	70	4	72	67	5.2	22	22

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	88	109	49	50	18	5	6.65
20th	95	113	51	55	18	5	6.25
30th	102	117	52	60	18	4	5.82
40th	109	122	54	65	18	4	5.53
50th	116	126	55	70	18	4	5.20
60th	119	126	54	73	17	4	4.92
70th	122	125	54	76	16	3	4.65
80th	126	124	53	79	15	3	4.29
90th	130	123	51	83	14	2	3.88

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

11 1.0 4.8

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 27 117 123 54 70 17 4 4.93 1.0 0.9 3.8

2010 28 106 111 48 62 15 4 4.87 1.0 0.8 4.1

2011 29 96 100 42 56 14 3 4.81 1.0 0.8 4.1

2012 30 86 90 39 49 12 3 4.84 1.0 0.7 3.9

2013 31 77 81 36 43 11 3 4.95 1.0 0.5 3.1

2014 32 69 73 33 39 10 2 4.99 1.0 0.5 3.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
11	1.0	4.8

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	27	117	123	54	70	17	4	4.93	1.0	0.9	3.8
2010	28	106	111	48	62	15	4	4.87	1.0	0.8	4.1
2011	29	96	100	42	56	14	3	4.81	1.0	0.8	4.1
2012	30	86	90	39	49	12	3	4.84	1.0	0.7	3.9
2013	31	77	81	36	43	11	3	4.95	1.0	0.5	3.1
2014	32	69	73	33	39	10	2	4.99	1.0	0.5	3.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.