Derek Holland
Age: 22
Team: TEX
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 3 |
3 |
57 |
62 |
11 |
26 |
43 |
2 |
37 |
34 |
5.37 |
11 |
11 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
41 |
57 |
26 |
28 |
13 |
3 |
8.56 |
| 20th |
45 |
58 |
26 |
31 |
12 |
3 |
7.40 |
| 30th |
49 |
59 |
26 |
36 |
12 |
2 |
6.61 |
| 40th |
53 |
61 |
26 |
39 |
11 |
2 |
5.94 |
| 50th |
57 |
62 |
26 |
43 |
11 |
2 |
5.37 |
| 60th |
59 |
61 |
25 |
45 |
10 |
2 |
4.88 |
| 70th |
61 |
60 |
24 |
48 |
9 |
1 |
4.43 |
| 80th |
63 |
58 |
23 |
51 |
8 |
1 |
3.86 |
| 90th |
67 |
55 |
21 |
55 |
6 |
0 |
2.96 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
22 |
58 |
59 |
26 |
47 |
10 |
2 |
4.88 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.1 |
| 2010 |
23 |
52 |
53 |
23 |
43 |
9 |
2 |
4.89 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
24 |
47 |
47 |
20 |
40 |
8 |
2 |
4.74 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.5 |
| 2012 |
25 |
43 |
42 |
18 |
36 |
7 |
2 |
4.58 |
1.0 |
0.5 |
2.8 |
| 2013 |
26 |
38 |
39 |
16 |
32 |
7 |
1 |
4.90 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.8 |
| 2014 |
27 |
35 |
35 |
14 |
29 |
6 |
1 |
4.64 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
2.7 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.