Alan Horne
Age: 26
Team: NYA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 4 |
5 |
83 |
90 |
13 |
46 |
62 |
5 |
54 |
50 |
5.42 |
18 |
18 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
62 |
80 |
42 |
42 |
14 |
6 |
7.55 |
| 20th |
67 |
82 |
43 |
47 |
14 |
6 |
6.99 |
| 30th |
73 |
84 |
44 |
53 |
13 |
5 |
6.16 |
| 40th |
78 |
87 |
45 |
57 |
13 |
5 |
5.77 |
| 50th |
83 |
90 |
46 |
62 |
13 |
5 |
5.42 |
| 60th |
86 |
89 |
45 |
65 |
12 |
5 |
5.02 |
| 70th |
89 |
88 |
44 |
68 |
11 |
4 |
4.55 |
| 80th |
92 |
87 |
43 |
71 |
10 |
4 |
4.21 |
| 90th |
95 |
85 |
41 |
76 |
9 |
3 |
3.69 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 7 |
0.7 |
3.5 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
84 |
87 |
47 |
66 |
12 |
5 |
5.13 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.7 |
| 2010 |
27 |
76 |
79 |
42 |
59 |
11 |
4 |
5.12 |
1.0 |
0.4 |
1.8 |
| 2011 |
28 |
68 |
72 |
37 |
52 |
10 |
4 |
5.23 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
1.5 |
| 2012 |
29 |
61 |
65 |
33 |
47 |
9 |
3 |
5.23 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.1 |
| 2013 |
30 |
55 |
58 |
30 |
41 |
8 |
3 |
5.19 |
1.0 |
0.2 |
1.2 |
| 2014 |
31 |
50 |
52 |
27 |
37 |
7 |
3 |
5.08 |
1.0 |
0.3 |
2.0 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.