Baseball Projection.com

Eric Hurley

Age: 23 Team: TEX

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	6	111	116	21	47	79	5	68	63	5.11	20	20

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	84	101	43	56	21	6	6.64
20th	90	105	44	62	21	6	6.30
30th	98	108	45	68	21	5	5.69
40th	104	112	46	73	21	5	5.45
50th	111	116	47	79	21	5	5.11
60th	114	115	46	82	20	5	4.82
70th	117	115	46	85	19	4	4.54
80th	121	113	45	89	18	4	4.17
90th	125	111	43	94	16	3	3.74

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

13 1.2 5.7

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 23 113 111 47 86 19 5 4.65 1.0 1.1 5.0

2010 24 102 99 42 79 17 4 4.55 1.0 1.1 5.5

2011 25 92 90 37 72 16 4 4.63 1.0 1.0 5.1

2012 26 82 81 33 64 14 4 4.66 1.0 0.9 5.0

2013 27 75 73 29 57 13 3 4.55 1.0 0.9 5.5

2014 28 67 67 25 51 12 3 4.69 1.0 0.7 4.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
13	1.2	5.7

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	23	113	111	47	86	19	5	4.65	1.0	1.1	5.0
2010	24	102	99	42	79	17	4	4.55	1.0	1.1	5.5
2011	25	92	90	37	72	16	4	4.63	1.0	1.0	5.1
2012	26	82	81	33	64	14	4	4.66	1.0	0.9	5.0
2013	27	75	73	29	57	13	3	4.55	1.0	0.9	5.5
2014	28	67	67	25	51	12	3	4.69	1.0	0.7	4.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.