Baseball Projection.com

Kei Igawa

Age: 29 Team: NYA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
9	8	151	162	22	51	105	5	85	79	4.71	25	25

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	116	139	46	76	22	6	5.82
20th	124	145	47	83	22	6	5.52
30th	134	151	48	91	22	5	5.17
40th	142	156	50	98	22	5	4.94
50th	151	162	51	105	22	5	4.71
60th	155	162	50	109	21	5	4.47
70th	159	162	50	112	20	4	4.19
80th	163	160	49	117	19	4	3.92
90th	168	158	47	122	17	3	3.59

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

19 1.8 8.3

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 29 152 158 53 111 21 5 4.50 1.0 1.8 8.0

2010 30 137 142 48 99 19 5 4.50 1.0 1.6 7.8

2011 31 122 129 44 87 17 4 4.62 1.0 1.2 6.6

2012 32 110 116 41 77 15 4 4.63 1.0 1.1 6.7

2013 33 98 105 37 68 14 4 4.79 1.0 0.9 5.5

2014 34 88 95 34 60 13 3 4.87 1.0 0.7 4.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
19	1.8	8.3

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	29	152	158	53	111	21	5	4.50	1.0	1.8	8.0
2010	30	137	142	48	99	19	5	4.50	1.0	1.6	7.8
2011	31	122	129	44	87	17	4	4.62	1.0	1.2	6.6
2012	32	110	116	41	77	15	4	4.63	1.0	1.1	6.7
2013	33	98	105	37	68	14	4	4.79	1.0	0.9	5.5
2014	34	88	95	34	60	13	3	4.87	1.0	0.7	4.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.