Baseball Projection.com

Jason Jennings

Age: 30 Team: TEX

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
5	6	102	117	14	44	58	3	64	59	5.21	18	18

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	76	102	41	39	15	4	6.99
20th	83	106	41	44	15	4	6.40
30th	89	109	42	49	14	3	5.87
40th	96	113	43	53	14	3	5.44
50th	102	117	44	58	14	3	5.21
60th	105	116	43	61	13	3	4.80
70th	108	116	42	64	12	2	4.58
80th	111	114	41	67	11	2	4.22
90th	115	112	39	71	9	1	3.68

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

11 1.0 4.8

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 30 103 113 44 63 13 3 4.88 1.0 0.8 3.4

2010 31 92 102 41 56 12 3 5.03 1.0 0.6 2.8

2011 32 83 92 37 49 11 2 5.02 1.0 0.5 2.5

2012 33 75 82 34 44 9 2 4.89 1.0 0.6 3.3

2013 34 67 75 31 38 9 2 5.16 1.0 0.3 1.8

2014 35 60 67 29 34 8 2 5.20 1.0 0.2 1.3

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
11	1.0	4.8

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	30	103	113	44	63	13	3	4.88	1.0	0.8	3.4
2010	31	92	102	41	56	12	3	5.03	1.0	0.6	2.8
2011	32	83	92	37	49	11	2	5.02	1.0	0.5	2.5
2012	33	75	82	34	44	9	2	4.89	1.0	0.6	3.3
2013	34	67	75	31	38	9	2	5.16	1.0	0.3	1.8
2014	35	60	67	29	34	8	2	5.20	1.0	0.2	1.3

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.