Baseball Projection.com

Alan Johnson

Age: 25 Team: COL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	10	150	186	25	65	74	7	107	99	5.94	26	26

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	113	160	59	51	25	8	7.57
20th	122	166	60	57	25	8	7.08
30th	132	172	62	63	25	7	6.55
40th	141	179	63	69	25	7	6.19
50th	150	186	65	74	25	7	5.94
60th	154	186	64	77	24	7	5.61
70th	158	186	63	80	23	6	5.30
80th	163	184	62	84	21	5	4.91
90th	168	182	60	89	19	4	4.50

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

7 0.7 3.5

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 25 152 181 64 74 23 7 5.54 1.0 0.0 0.4

2010 26 136 164 57 66 21 6 5.63 1.0 0.0 0.4

2011 27 123 148 50 59 19 5 5.57 1.0 0.0 0.4

2012 28 111 134 44 53 17 5 5.56 1.0 0.0 0.4

2013 29 100 121 39 47 15 4 5.52 1.0 0.0 0.4

2014 30 89 109 36 42 14 4 5.70 1.0 0.0 0.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
7	0.7	3.5

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	Value ($mil)
2009	25	152	181	64	74	23	7	5.54	1.0	0.4
2010	26	136	164	57	66	21	6	5.63	1.0	0.4
2011	27	123	148	50	59	19	5	5.57	1.0	0.4
2012	28	111	134	44	53	17	5	5.56	1.0	0.4
2013	29	100	121	39	47	15	4	5.52	1.0	0.4
2014	30	89	109	36	42	14	4	5.70	1.0	0.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.