Baseball Projection.com

Jason Johnson

Age: 35 Team: NYA

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
6	5	101	116	13	34	59	5	60	56	4.99	19	19

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	76	101	31	41	14	6	6.51
20th	83	105	32	46	14	5	5.96
30th	89	108	32	51	13	5	5.46
40th	95	112	33	55	13	5	5.21
50th	101	116	34	59	13	5	4.99
60th	104	116	33	61	12	5	4.67
70th	107	116	33	64	12	4	4.37
80th	110	114	32	67	11	4	4.01
90th	114	112	30	71	9	3	3.47

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

12 1.1 5.2

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 35 102 112 35 63 12 5 4.62 1.0 1.0 4.6

2010 36 92 102 32 55 11 4 4.68 1.0 1.0 4.6

2011 37 82 92 30 48 10 4 4.83 1.0 0.7 3.5

2012 38 74 83 27 43 9 3 4.80 1.0 0.7 3.9

2013 39 66 75 25 37 8 3 4.92 1.0 0.5 3.1

2014 40 59 68 23 33 8 3 5.15 1.0 0.3 2.0

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
12	1.1	5.2

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	35	102	112	35	63	12	5	4.62	1.0	1.0	4.6
2010	36	92	102	32	55	11	4	4.68	1.0	1.0	4.6
2011	37	82	92	30	48	10	4	4.83	1.0	0.7	3.5
2012	38	74	83	27	43	9	3	4.80	1.0	0.7	3.9
2013	39	66	75	25	37	8	3	4.92	1.0	0.5	3.1
2014	40	59	68	23	33	8	3	5.15	1.0	0.3	2.0

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.