Baseball Projection.com

Kristofer Johnson

Age: 24 Team: BOS

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
4	5	87	99	13	45	53	3	58	54	5.59	18	18

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	64	88	42	35	15	4	7.88
20th	71	90	42	40	14	4	6.85
30th	76	93	43	45	14	3	6.39
40th	82	96	44	49	13	3	5.82
50th	87	99	45	53	13	3	5.59
60th	90	98	44	56	12	3	5.10
70th	93	98	43	58	11	2	4.65
80th	96	95	42	62	10	2	4.13
90th	100	93	40	66	8	1	3.69

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

6 0.6 3.0

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 24 88 98 45 58 14 3 5.43 1.0 0.1 0.4

2010 25 79 88 40 52 12 3 5.38 1.0 0.2 0.9

2011 26 71 79 35 46 11 3 5.37 1.0 0.1 0.5

2012 27 64 72 31 42 10 2 5.38 1.0 0.1 0.6

2013 28 58 65 27 37 9 2 5.31 1.0 0.2 1.2

2014 29 52 59 24 33 8 2 5.37 1.0 0.1 0.7

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
6	0.6	3.0

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	24	88	98	45	58	14	3	5.43	1.0	0.1	0.4
2010	25	79	88	40	52	12	3	5.38	1.0	0.2	0.9
2011	26	71	79	35	46	11	3	5.37	1.0	0.1	0.5
2012	27	64	72	31	42	10	2	5.38	1.0	0.1	0.6
2013	28	58	65	27	37	9	2	5.31	1.0	0.2	1.2
2014	29	52	59	24	33	8	2	5.37	1.0	0.1	0.7

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.