Baseball Projection.com

Jair Jurrjens

Age: 23 Team: ATL

**CHONE 2009 Projection**
Won	Lost	IP	Hits	HR	BB	SO	HB	Runs	ER	ERA	Games	GS
9	7	148	147	14	55	110	5	71	66	4.01	26	26

**Percentiles**
Percentile	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA
10th	113	127	49	80	15	6	5.18
20th	122	131	51	88	14	5	4.65
30th	131	136	52	96	14	5	4.40
40th	139	142	53	103	14	5	4.21
50th	148	147	55	110	14	5	4.01
60th	152	147	54	114	13	5	3.79
70th	155	147	54	117	13	4	3.66
80th	159	145	53	122	11	4	3.34
90th	164	144	51	127	10	3	3.07

Weighted Value above replacement
Runs Wins Value ($mil)

23 2.2 10.1

6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
YEAR AGE Innings Hits BB SO HR HB ERA Ex. Lev WAR Value ($mil)
2009 23 146 152 55 102 15 5 4.30 1.0 2.1 9.2

2010 24 133 136 48 95 13 4 4.12 1.0 2.2 10.6

2011 25 119 123 43 85 12 4 4.21 1.0 1.8 9.6

2012 26 108 111 38 76 11 3 4.15 1.0 1.7 10.0

2013 27 97 101 33 68 10 3 4.20 1.0 1.5 9.8

2014 28 87 91 29 61 9 3 4.21 1.0 1.3 9.4

**Weighted Value above replacement**
Runs	Wins	Value ($mil)
23	2.2	10.1

**6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)**
YEAR	AGE	Innings	Hits	BB	SO	HR	HB	ERA	Ex. Lev	WAR	Value ($mil)
2009	23	146	152	55	102	15	5	4.30	1.0	2.1	9.2
2010	24	133	136	48	95	13	4	4.12	1.0	2.2	10.6
2011	25	119	123	43	85	12	4	4.21	1.0	1.8	9.6
2012	26	108	111	38	76	11	3	4.15	1.0	1.7	10.0
2013	27	97	101	33	68	10	3	4.20	1.0	1.5	9.8
2014	28	87	91	29	61	9	3	4.21	1.0	1.3	9.4

Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers. To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.

WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.

Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now, the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.