Chris Kelly
Age: 26
Team: TBA
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 1 |
4 |
44 |
55 |
9 |
32 |
17 |
2 |
38 |
35 |
7.16 |
43 |
0 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
31 |
50 |
30 |
10 |
10 |
3 |
11.03 |
| 20th |
34 |
51 |
31 |
12 |
10 |
3 |
10.06 |
| 30th |
38 |
52 |
31 |
14 |
10 |
2 |
8.53 |
| 40th |
41 |
53 |
32 |
15 |
9 |
2 |
7.68 |
| 50th |
44 |
55 |
32 |
17 |
9 |
2 |
7.16 |
| 60th |
46 |
54 |
31 |
18 |
8 |
2 |
6.26 |
| 70th |
47 |
54 |
31 |
20 |
8 |
1 |
5.94 |
| 80th |
50 |
52 |
29 |
21 |
6 |
1 |
5.04 |
| 90th |
52 |
50 |
28 |
23 |
5 |
1 |
4.33 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
26 |
44 |
56 |
31 |
18 |
9 |
2 |
7.20 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2010 |
27 |
40 |
51 |
28 |
16 |
8 |
1 |
7.10 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2011 |
28 |
36 |
47 |
24 |
14 |
8 |
1 |
7.32 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2012 |
29 |
32 |
42 |
22 |
13 |
7 |
1 |
7.41 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2013 |
30 |
29 |
38 |
20 |
11 |
6 |
1 |
7.34 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
| 2014 |
31 |
26 |
33 |
18 |
10 |
5 |
1 |
7.04 |
1.0 |
0.0 |
0.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.