Clayton Kershaw
Age: 21
Team: LAN
CHONE 2009 Projection
| Won | Lost | IP | Hits | HR |
BB | SO | HB | Runs | ER |
ERA | Games | GS |
|---|
| 7 |
6 |
115 |
109 |
12 |
57 |
102 |
3 |
57 |
53 |
4.15 |
24 |
24 |
Percentiles
| Percentile | Innings | Hits | BB | SO |
HR | HB | ERA |
|---|
| 10th |
87 |
95 |
51 |
74 |
13 |
4 |
5.48 |
| 20th |
94 |
98 |
53 |
81 |
13 |
4 |
5.07 |
| 30th |
101 |
102 |
54 |
88 |
12 |
3 |
4.72 |
| 40th |
108 |
106 |
55 |
95 |
12 |
3 |
4.42 |
| 50th |
115 |
109 |
57 |
102 |
12 |
3 |
4.15 |
| 60th |
118 |
108 |
56 |
106 |
11 |
3 |
3.89 |
| 70th |
121 |
108 |
56 |
109 |
11 |
2 |
3.72 |
| 80th |
124 |
107 |
55 |
114 |
10 |
2 |
3.41 |
| 90th |
129 |
105 |
53 |
119 |
8 |
1 |
3.00 |
Weighted Value above replacement
| Runs | Wins | Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 16 |
1.5 |
7.0 |
6 Year Forecast (Neutral Park/League)
| YEAR | AGE | Innings | Hits |
BB | SO | HR | HB | ERA | Ex. Lev | WAR |
Value ($mil) |
|---|
| 2009 |
21 |
113 |
114 |
57 |
93 |
12 |
3 |
4.49 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
5.9 |
| 2010 |
22 |
103 |
102 |
50 |
86 |
10 |
3 |
4.29 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
6.9 |
| 2011 |
23 |
93 |
91 |
44 |
80 |
9 |
2 |
4.17 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
7.6 |
| 2012 |
24 |
84 |
81 |
39 |
74 |
8 |
2 |
4.08 |
1.0 |
1.4 |
8.4 |
| 2013 |
25 |
76 |
73 |
35 |
66 |
7 |
2 |
4.03 |
1.0 |
1.3 |
8.6 |
| 2014 |
26 |
68 |
66 |
31 |
59 |
7 |
2 |
4.16 |
1.0 |
1.0 |
7.4 |
Ex. Lev = expected leverage index. It accounts for the increased importance of innings pitched by late inning relievers.
To learn more about pitcher leverage, check out Inside the Book.
WAR = Wins above repleacement. In a neutral park and league, replacement level is set for 2009 at an ERA of 5.54 for starters and 4.45 for relievers.
Dollar value is based on a 4.4 million dollars per win for 2009, and increasing 10% each year thereafter. As of now,
the CHONE projection system does not include a macroeconomic model to improve the inflation forecast.